Dear Economist,
thanks for your dating advice. Here’s my question: how will I know if I found the right person? How can I be sure that the person I am dating will be my soulmate?
Sincerely, Paul

The One

Dear Paul,

your question is a tough one indeed and I am not sure that economists have a satisfying answer. But here’s trying. Let’s structure the problem into pieces we can deal with. ‘Finding the One’ chiefly has three elements: (i) a set of selection criteria against which you evaluate potential mates, (ii) a set of selection criteria against which your favourite mate evaluates you, and (iii) factors of long-term compatibility.

Suprisingly, working on (i) is treated with negligence by many searching singles. It is important, however, that you know what you are looking for, before you look. Economists usually assume this as a given, in their language “people know their individual utility function”. In reality, that is not often the case. As a first step, I therefore advise that you sit down and figure out your utility function. What makes you happy? What are the characteristics that your future wife needs to have? –  It is ok to have a long list, as long as you prioritize it. In addition, I would advise to stick to criteria that are somehow measurable, or you have an idea about how to evaluate them. You also need to be aware of obvious trade-offs. I heard from a few young men that they want a mate that is both a successful go-getter in business and a meek stay-at-home mum. Needless to say, most of them are still searching. 

Once you have a complete wishlist, which is free of mutually exclusive items, we can move to issue (ii). This is a bit more tricky, as you don’t know The One yet. But you can explore the dating market and learn what the women that typically meet your criteria tend to fancy. If the dating market is a bit thin where you live, don’t hesitate to call on female friends and relatives who might have a good judgement of these preferences. In addition, there are some attributes nearly all women like. Unfortunately, some of them are discriminatory, such as ‘height’. But there’s nothing wrong with wearing (hidden) high soles. For example, Nicolas Sarkozy and Gerhard Schroeder are both guilty, I’ve been told. Women also often prefer a man that is more or less close to their own age. (For an overview of the general preferences of women, see Belot and Francesconi: “Can anyone be the one? Evidence on mate selection from Speed Dating”, Essex University, 2006).

If you have a grasp of both (i) and (ii), let’s explore issue (iii). What kind of persons do usually end up together, and it works?  – The answer to this has actually changed over time. The empirical literature has found that differences do no longer attract.  With the rise in women’s education and access to the labor market, marriages have increasingly been concluded between partners who are very much alike in terms of diplomas and earnings. Whereas in our granny’s generation the dominant model was the combination of earning and educated man with non-earning and less educated woman. In those times, the woman scientist, or poet, stayed often single. But the world has changed. Stable marriages usually involve equals. Think The Obamas rather than The Beckers.

As Fernandez, Guner and Knowles show (in “Love and Money: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Household Sorting and Inequality”, U of Pennsylvania, 2001), there is ‘positive assortative mating’ in marriages along the variables of education and income.  I.e. spouses are usually equally educated and equally rich. – It is likely that they are also ‘equal’ on a series of other attributes and habits, i.e.  taste for travels or sports, a talent for music, religious devotion….but these are usually not easily measured or reflected in publicly available data. But you can still check them out on a date.

In summary, we won’t be able to decide who is ‘The One’ for you. But we hope we’ve made your search a little more hopeful. Do let us know how it’s going.

Your Economist